Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe258…5605 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$302 (-60%) realized −$291 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$157
crypto 20% −$102
sports 11% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-83.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -40.7%
≤30d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -40.7%
≤90d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -40.7%
all 8 -81.5% -83.3% 12% 12% -77.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.3% 12% -77.5%
10% -84.9% 12% -79.6%
15% -86.3% 12% -81.6%
20% -87.7% 0% -83.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$48 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage233d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $50 $40 −$11 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Nov 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? Oct 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out in 2025? Oct 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31? Oct 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 216d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 217d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 221d
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 231d
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 231d
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 232d
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 233d
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31? BUY No 37¢ $50 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.43 · official $88.42 (match) · 15 history records