Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe257…17c8 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$10
other 23% +$2
sports 15% −$8
politics 10% −$1
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 -2.7% -11.9% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 36 +0.7% -8.9% 28% 3% -9.9%
all 50 -8.0% -16.7% 34% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 8% -10.1%
10% -24.7% 6% -18.7%
15% -32.0% 4% -26.5%
20% -38.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage534d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $60 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $132 −$2 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$2 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $28 −$7 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $45 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $21 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $156 +$1 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $303 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $268 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $294 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $197 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $9 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz May 05 $3 $0 -2%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Drake vs. Illinois State Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 35-38 people watch Trump inauguration? Feb 03 $8 $0 +3%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 24 $1 $0 +24%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 21 $5 $0 +3%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Jan 20 $3 $0 -10%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Jan 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $8 +$3 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $6 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $28 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $34 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $18 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.42 (match) · 185 history records