Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe257…efb2 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (172 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+6%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day172.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% $0
other 3% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (172 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.9% -3.2% 63% 43% -9.0%
≤30d 30 +6.9% -3.2% 63% 43% -9.0%
≤90d 30 +6.9% -3.2% 63% 43% -9.0%
all 30 +6.9% -3.2% 63% 43% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover172.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 43% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 13% -17.7%
15% -21.0% 10% -25.7%
20% -28.7% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day172.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of June 15 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? No 75¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 46¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of June 15 2026? No 71¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $5.65 (match) · 207 history records