Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe253…b9c7 sports 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$209 (-2%) realized −$235 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%193W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$210
14 days+$243
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$480
other 24% +$258
crypto 1% −$64
world 0% +$26
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +50.9% +36.5% 42% 42% +6.8%
≤30d 52 +22.1% +10.5% 40% 40% -4.6%
≤90d 282 -6.3% -15.2% 40% 39% -14.1%
all 457 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 40% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 40% -11.7%
10% -24.0% 39% -20.1%
15% -31.4% 37% -27.8%
20% -38.1% 32% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses193 / 264
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)457 / 458
History coverage106d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 48¢ 60¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $64 −$11 -17%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 Jun 24 $22 +$91 +411%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $27 +$47 +176%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 +$67 +185%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $120 −$4 -3%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 +$99 +474%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $44 +$76 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$41 +97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $144 +$297 +206%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $54 +$90 +165%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$74 +197%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $43 +$74 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$26 +145%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $16 +$32 +192%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $14 +$20 +139%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $15 +$15 +97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $96 −$96 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $34 +$55 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $38 +$58 +152%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 01 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $134 +$251 +188%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$131 +128%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 31 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 31 $422 −$422 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $248 +$174 +70%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) May 30 $47 +$208 +442%
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $101 49m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 31¢ $53 53m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 36¢ $64 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 SELL 99¢ $113 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 19¢ $22 4h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $41 26h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $51 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 21¢ $35 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 46¢ $74 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $74 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $27 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $103 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 99¢ $104 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $36 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 25¢ $116 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $117 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $120 4d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $99 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $120 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $44 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $43 5d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $144 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $54 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $37 7d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $30 7d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $43 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $43 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.79 · official $134.11 · 1000 history records