Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe24f…853f other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 40L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
world 35% −$2
politics 13% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 6% -9.9%
all 73 +1.1% -8.5% 45% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage452d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $22 −$2 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $8 −$2 -20%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 +$1 +59%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $17 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 18 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 18 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 17 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $23 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $13 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $24 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $36 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $37 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $37 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records