Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe24e…eece sports 752 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,524 (+3%) realized +$1,504 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%420W / 325L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$1,644
14 days−$1,354
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,208
other 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -11.9% -20.3% 46% 40% -20.9%
≤30d 557 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 50% -8.4%
≤90d 745 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 49% -7.4%
all 745 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 49% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 49% -7.4%
10% -14.1% 39% -16.3%
15% -22.4% 32% -24.3%
20% -30.0% 26% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$44 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized+$1,504
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses420 / 325
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions7
Markets (closed)745 / 752
History coverage40d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Adrienn Nagy 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 Under 53¢ 57¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 64¢ 66¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 53¢ 55¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Mara Guth 94¢ 89¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $4 +$2 +48%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $73 −$72 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $87 −$86 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
ITF Haskovo: Bianca Barbulescu vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $12 +$1 +12%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $181 −$63 -35%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $101 +$42 +42%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$11 +35%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $100 +$19 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 16 $67 −$66 -99%
Set Handicap: Zhu (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $46 −$46 -99%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Kozyreva/Shymanovich vs Pridankina/Tang Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$63 +62%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Alastair Gray vs. Tristan Schoolkate: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Ignacio Buse vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 94¢ $100 1h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 91¢ $100 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $4 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $73 14h
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Jonah Braswell 45¢ $87 14h
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young BUY Dhakshineswar Suresh 58¢ $101 17h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 48¢ $100 17h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 87¢ $100 18h
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $101 18h
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 18h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 12¢ $14 19h
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz BUY Ipek Oz 72¢ $101 20h
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 64¢ $101 20h
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens BUY Amy Stevens 92¢ $100 20h
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 92¢ $100 22h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Rositsa Dencheva 55¢ $101 22h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $100 23h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 87¢ $100 23h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 58¢ $101 23h
ITF Haskovo: Bianca Barbulescu vs Denislava Glushkova BUY Denislava Glushkova 80¢ $101 23h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 90¢ $100 24h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 88¢ $100 25h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 89¢ $100 25h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Qiu Yu Ye 85¢ $100 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 94¢ $70 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 43¢ $80 28h
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Matsumoto vs Mayuka Aikawa BUY Mayuka Aikawa 92¢ $100 32h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 63¢ $51 37h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 51¢ $101 44h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 89¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.62 · official $569.63 (match) · 1282 history records