Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe24c…466f crypto 654 markets active 12h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%530W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$5
14 days−$12
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +1.8% -7.9% 89% 31% -7.9%
≤30d 485 -5.9% -14.8% 76% 26% -12.3%
≤90d 654 -4.3% -13.4% 81% 21% -11.3%
all 654 -4.3% -13.4% 81% 21% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 21% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 8% -19.8%
15% -29.3% 4% -27.5%
20% -36.2% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses530 / 124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)654 / 654
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 654 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1319 history records