Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe24a…07db world 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-10%) realized −$319 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate64%71W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$9
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$281
other 15% +$4
finance 13% +$45
crypto 10% −$10
tech 7% −$17
politics 5% −$7
sports 3% −$18
economics 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 29 -20.8% -28.4% 66% 41% -24.4%
≤90d 111 -14.4% -22.6% 64% 20% -23.3%
all 111 -14.4% -22.6% 64% 20% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 20% -23.3%
10% -30.0% 5% -30.6%
15% -36.7% 3% -37.3%
20% -42.9% 1% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses71 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)111 / 134
History coverage47d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 97¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+21%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 65¢ 100¢ $29 $44 +$16 (+54%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $29 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 99¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 77¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 100¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 49¢ 100¢ $9 $19 +$10 (+104%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 69¢ 68¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 69¢ 88¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 74¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 16¢ $10 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $39 +$9 +22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $39 +$7 +17%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $58 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $39 +$9 +23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $119 −$89 -74%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $10 −$9 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $39 +$7 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $90 +$39 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $23 +$2 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +15%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +6%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +22%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $29 +$4 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $21 +$6 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $57 +$9 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $38 −$17 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $59 +$8 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $20 +$3 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $109 −$62 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $59 −$31 -52%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 26 $4 +$1 +21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $39 −$13 -34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $39 −$19 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $58 −$10 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 22 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 22 $40 −$19 -47%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $40 −$15 -37%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 22 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 69¢ $17 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $25 17h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $17 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $20 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $39 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 55¢ $37 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 55¢ $19 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 36¢ $24 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 36¢ $24 18d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $39 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 38¢ $28 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 35¢ $20 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 18¢ $29 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $28 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $37 19d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 19d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 20d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $2 20d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 20d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $39 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 55¢ $38 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $9 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $19 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 55¢ $20 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 19¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.04 · official $451.04 (match) · 437 history records