trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 20% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 24 | -4.8% | -13.9% | 46% | 0% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.9% | 0% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 0% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 0% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 61¢ | 64¢ | $55 | $58 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 19 | $44 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $4 | $0 | -5% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $102 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $107 | −$6 | -5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 01 | $42 | +$2 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $48 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 31 | $47 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 30 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 28 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 29 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | May 22 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 21 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |