Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe248…8165 other 44 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-7%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$57
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$54
crypto 24% −$9
sports 11% +$26
tech 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -58.0% -62.0% 27% 27% -40.4%
≤30d 36 -35.1% -41.3% 39% 39% -17.8%
≤90d 36 -35.1% -41.3% 39% 39% -17.8%
all 36 -35.1% -41.3% 39% 39% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 39% -17.8%
10% -46.9% 36% -25.7%
15% -52.1% 36% -32.9%
20% -56.8% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $15 +$20 +131%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 +$12 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $31 +$12 +38%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $15 +$21 +140%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 26¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 24¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 23¢ $10 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 12d
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 13d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 13d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 61¢ $15 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.42 · official $56.42 (match) · 66 history records