Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe247…e6ca crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$17 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%57W / 1L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$13
weather 19% +$1
politics 13% +$1
world 9% +$1
other 4% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses57 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage537d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? No 100¢ 55¢ $31 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 26? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 11-17? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? May 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 10 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 30? May 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? May 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? Apr 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 23? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 24? Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? Apr 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 21? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on April 21? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or higher on April 19? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 19? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 Apr 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 9? Apr 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 25? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 08 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 25 $103 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Jan 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 20? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on October 14? Oct 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Oct 16 $41 $0 +0%
Bill allowing Trump 3rd term passes House before June? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Bank of England rate cut in May meeting? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US sanction UK before April? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March? Mar 09 $3 $0 +1%
Trump positive favorability on March 1? Mar 09 $4 $0 +0%
DeepSeek removed from App Store before March? Mar 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 20? Mar 01 $6 $0 +0%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 18? Feb 20 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on June 22 BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $49 27d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 39d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $26 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 40d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 40d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? SELL No 97¢ $24 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $24 47d
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? BUY No 100¢ $15 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 47d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $33 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $35 53d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $21 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $16 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? BUY No 99¢ $11 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 59d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 59d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 59d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 62d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 62d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or higher on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 62d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $36 69d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 BUY No 98¢ $14 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.52 · official $85.98 · 122 history records