Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe246…a104 world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 32% +$3
politics 11% $0
sports 11% −$5
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 53 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage526d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $54 −$2 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $125 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $81 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $171 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $43 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $390 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $199 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $278 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 12? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Roma beat FC Porto? Mar 03 $6 +$3 +47%
Southern vs. Alabama State Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $41 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $17 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $14 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $27 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $17 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.74 · official $0.00 · 236 history records