Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe243…b603 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 34% −$1
economics 8% +$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -2.0% -11.3% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -2.0% -11.3% 22% 0% -10.0%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage454d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $76 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $10 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 37m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $14 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $24 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 18h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $23 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $15 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $18 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $14 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $29 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $43 21d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $11 354d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 375d
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec BUY No 96¢ $2 389d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records