Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe241…ba7a world 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,034 (+22%) realized +$1,028 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%35W / 30L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$680
politics 18% +$430
other 14% +$71
crypto 3% −$107
sports 3% −$15
finance 2% −$24
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 7 -17.3% -25.1% 43% 43% -2.4%
≤90d 9 +37.3% +24.2% 56% 44% +18.6%
all 65 +9.5% -0.9% 54% 46% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 46% +11.2%
10% -10.4% 45% +0.6%
15% -19.1% 38% -9.1%
20% -27.0% 32% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$36 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$1,028
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage335d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 66¢ 67¢ $238 $243 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $144 +$100 +70%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 16 $102 −$24 -24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 +$45 +82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 03 $116 +$59 +51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 20 $81 +$3 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 18 $36 +$162 +453%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 Oct 30 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? Oct 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Oct 23 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $4 +$4 +88%
Will Trump say "Putin" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Oct 07 $18 +$22 +122%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 05 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Mahmoud Abbas attend the UN General Assembly? Oct 01 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29? Sep 29 $91 +$51 +56%
Will Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Sep 28 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September? Sep 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? Sep 18 $23 +$11 +47%
Will Trump say "Palestine" during September? Sep 16 $60 +$140 +233%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 15? Sep 10 $353 +$177 +50%
Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15? Sep 07 $90 +$243 +269%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30? Sep 06 $231 +$1 +0%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Sep 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 05 $199 −$180 -90%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer wi Sep 03 $41 +$59 +144%
Will Trump say "Emergency" during his announcement on September 2? Sep 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30? Sep 02 $23 +$8 +35%
Will Rodrygo stay with Real Madrid? Sep 02 $42 +$53 +127%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August? Sep 01 $270 +$258 +96%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025? Aug 30 $141 +$61 +44%
Will Israel strike Syria on Saturday August 30? Aug 29 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Israel strike Syria on Sunday August 31? Aug 28 $48 +$3 +7%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during events with South Korean presi Aug 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" during events with South Korean president on Au Aug 25 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president Aug 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? Aug 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 24 $143 −$143 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Aug 21 $150 −$107 -71%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Aug 20 $51 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $127 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $244 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $78 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 26¢ $78 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $66 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $55 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $26 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $11 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $16 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 34¢ $102 7d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $64 16d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $76 20d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $35 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL Yes 31¢ $84 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $81 32d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $60 32d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $30 32d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $27 32d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 32d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 233d
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 SELL Yes 6¢ $2 233d
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 BUY Yes 26¢ $8 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.33 · official $243.33 (match) · 217 history records