Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe23d…3c72 other 349 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,288 (+5%) realized +$4,288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%145W / 203L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$3,187
sports 8% −$1,005
crypto 5% −$1,076
culture 3% −$696
politics 1% +$145
weather 1% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -21.8% -29.2% 37% 33% -30.7%
≤30d 140 -32.0% -38.5% 36% 29% -29.0%
≤90d 303 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 25% -27.0%
all 348 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 30% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 30% -15.6%
10% -22.6% 24% -23.7%
15% -30.1% 22% -31.1%
20% -36.9% 20% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$119 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$4,288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses145 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 349
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$248
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 +$14 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $425 −$63 -15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $540 −$102 -19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $72 −$4 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $255 +$284 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$34 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $336 −$335 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$19 -60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $247 −$147 -60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$22 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $300 −$200 -67%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $288 +$9 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $120 −$105 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $500 +$92 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $798 −$318 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$98 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $38 −$29 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $331 −$201 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $204 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$4 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $23 −$21 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $149 −$101 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -41%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $910 −$855 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $39 +$55 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 31 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 31 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 31 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $205 −$61 -30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $631 +$22 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 21¢ $111 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 18¢ $98 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $362 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $174 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $245 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $73 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $255 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $52 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $68 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $17 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 55¢ $58 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $540 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $539 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $255 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $47 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $11 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.55 · official $6.55 (match) · 3500 history records