Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe23b…7c42 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,760 (-28%) realized −$9,504 · open −$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,649per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,227
7 days−$8,154
14 days−$11,106
30 days−$11,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$9,009
sports 14% −$170
world 8% −$2,183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -60.3% -64.0% 14% 14% -63.3%
≤30d 11 -32.2% -38.7% 36% 27% -41.4%
≤90d 11 -32.2% -38.7% 36% 27% -41.4%
all 11 -32.2% -38.7% 36% 27% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 27% -41.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.6% 27% -47.0%
15% -49.9% 27% -52.1%
20% -54.8% 18% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,257 vs −$2,305 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,454
Realized−$9,504
Unrealized−$256
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2,649
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 44¢ 42¢ $1,952 $1,885 −$67 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $758 $569 −$190 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,004 −$1,227 -61%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $998 −$977 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,875 −$2,854 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,002 +$873 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,021 −$1,993 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,911 −$1,892 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,993 −$84 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $7,129 −$7,108 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,755 +$374 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,973 +$3,254 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $1,985 55m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $776 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $777 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,004 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $998 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,875 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2,002 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,021 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,911 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $1,909 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $1,993 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $108 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $7,021 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,129 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $44 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $701 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5,008 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,470 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $496 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,454.03 · official $2,454.03 (match) · 25 history records