Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe237…8a60 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+5%) realized +$25 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$120
other 27% −$4
world 24% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +118.6% +97.8% 100% 100% +97.8%
≤30d 1 +118.6% +97.8% 100% 100% +97.8%
≤90d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% -0.3%
all 2 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 50% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 50% -0.3%
10% -10.6% 50% -9.8%
15% -19.2% 50% -18.5%
20% -27.1% 50% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$98 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage80d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 24 $100 +$118 +119%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $100 31h
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $98 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.40 · official $207.40 (match) · 7 history records