Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe235…968a crypto 1184 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,152 (-5%) realized −$3,143 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%681W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,688
world 0% −$134
other 0% −$23
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.9% +4.9% 47% 47% -5.6%
≤30d 19 +15.9% +4.9% 47% 47% -5.6%
≤90d 517 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 47% -17.0%
all 1171 -10.0% -18.6% 58% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 50% -15.1%
10% -26.4% 39% -23.2%
15% -33.5% 28% -30.6%
20% -40.0% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$34 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$3,143
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses681 / 490
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1171 / 1184
History coverage143d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 46¢ 52¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 317 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 26 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 26 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 26 $120 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 13 $34 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 13 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 13 $278 −$46 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 13 $130 −$96 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 13 $199 +$59 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 13 $110 −$107 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 13 $120 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 12 $120 +$61 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.46 · official $140.37 (match) · 3171 history records