Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe234…304a
world · 14 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$217 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open +$3,707
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$56,285
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$3,707
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7,469
Trades / day172.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $19,516 $22,125 +$2,609 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $11,035 $12,263 +$1,228 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $8,200 $8,395 +$195 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 24¢ $5,535 $5,241 −$294 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $2,217 $2,661 +$443 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 53¢ $2,573 $2,236 −$337 (-13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes $1,220 $1,309 +$89 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $967 $1,209 +$242 (+25%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ $728 $659 −$68 (-9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $137 $130 −$7 (-5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 10¢ $447 $56 −$391 (-87%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 32¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,341 +$91 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $145 −$145 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 95% +$4,045
tech 5% −$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $246 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $168 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $87 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $771 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1,478 11m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $137 12m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $728 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $958 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,172 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $932 26m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No $174 28m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 10¢ $522 28m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 11¢ $106 31m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 19¢ $341 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $825 53m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $277 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 26¢ $170 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1,076 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $849 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,410 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $147 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,624 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,687 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $120 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $330 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 40¢ $1,246 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 43¢ $729 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.1% -53.0% 50% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 2 -48.1% -53.0% 50% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 2 -48.1% -53.0% 50% 0% -11.5%
all 2 -48.1% -53.0% 50% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover172.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.0% 0% -11.5%
10% -57.5% 0% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -61.6% 0% -27.7%
20% -65.4% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,284.92 · official $56,285.68 (match) · 174 history records