Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe232…6cea sports 1041 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,978 (-9%) realized −$2,976 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%392W / 624L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$393est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$86
14 days−$658
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,101
other 17% −$534
crypto 9% −$694
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -5.2% -14.2% 38% 38% -13.9%
≤30d 743 -5.8% -14.8% 36% 35% -10.3%
≤90d 942 -12.7% -21.0% 36% 33% -21.3%
all 1016 -8.2% -17.0% 39% 36% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 36% -19.2%
10% -24.9% 34% -27.0%
15% -32.2% 31% -34.0%
20% -38.8% 30% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$2,976
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses392 / 624
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$393
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1016 / 1041
History coverage146d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1016 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 50¢ 53¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$26 +417%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +87%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +114%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$10 +194%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 14h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 7¢ $1 15h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 7¢ $0 15h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 7¢ $1 15h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 30¢ $2 16h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 12¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 7¢ $2 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $20 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $4 25h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 17¢ $1 26h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 17¢ $2 26h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 27h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 28h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 28h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 28h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 28h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.46 · official $129.46 (match) · 2759 history records