Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe22a…4594 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% $0
world 31% −$16
other 15% +$1
sports 14% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% +$3
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 20 -1.6% -10.9% 15% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 53 -1.5% -10.8% 19% 0% -9.9%
all 74 -1.1% -10.6% 26% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage330d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $77 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $253 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $204 −$7 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $83 −$3 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $50 −$2 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $109 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $155 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $281 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $274 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $1 $0 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $107 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $92 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 26 $205 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $76 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $64 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $12 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $52 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $77 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $85 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $86 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $86 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $86 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $60 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $87 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $79 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $80 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $61 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $83 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records