Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe229…ea0f weather 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$556 (-25%) realized −$530 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%51W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$494
14 days−$572
30 days−$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -8.3% -17.0% 43% 40% -32.8%
≤30d 118 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 40% -34.1%
≤90d 118 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 40% -34.1%
all 118 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 40% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 40% -34.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 36% -40.4%
15% -33.3% 25% -46.2%
20% -39.9% 20% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$530
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses51 / 67
Open positions12
Markets (closed)118 / 130
History coverage12d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30? No 56¢ 62¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 30? No 80¢ 77¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 30? No 75¢ 76¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 30? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? No 57¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 30? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 29? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? Jun 30 $18 +$8 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? Jun 30 $23 +$7 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 30? Jun 30 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 29 $18 −$9 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 29? Jun 29 $19 +$11 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $47 −$42 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $0 +$2 +564%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? Jun 29 $46 −$23 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 29? Jun 29 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $16 +$22 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $27 −$12 -46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 28? Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? Jun 29 $12 +$18 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? Jun 29 $43 +$16 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 29? Jun 29 $12 +$31 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 +$8 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? Jun 29 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $11 −$6 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? Jun 28 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $35 −$15 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 +$5 +436%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28? Jun 28 $14 +$8 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $12 +$18 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $38 +$12 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $17 +$53 +308%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $52 −$32 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 +$12 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $28 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $13 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $60 −$36 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $26 1m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? BUY No 57¢ $6 20m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? BUY No 57¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $14 52m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 57¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 30? BUY No 75¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 56¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY No 75¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 8¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.79 · official $119.80 (match) · 568 history records