Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe226…74d8 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+14%) realized +$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$42
other 13% −$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -18.9% -26.7% 41% 41% +3.8%
≤30d 22 -18.9% -26.7% 41% 41% +3.8%
≤90d 22 -18.9% -26.7% 41% 41% +3.8%
all 22 -18.9% -26.7% 41% 41% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 41% +3.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 41% -6.1%
15% -40.1% 41% -15.2%
20% -46.0% 36% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$19 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$28 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 12h
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 12h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 12h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 4¢ $10 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.80 · official $53.80 · 49 history records