Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe226…f76b crypto 1113 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (853 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,184 (+295%) realized −$837 · open +$7,021
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%13W / 410L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day853.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$7,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8,754
other 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (853 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 423 -35.5% -41.6% 3% 3% +26.9%
≤30d 423 -35.5% -41.6% 3% 3% +26.9%
≤90d 423 -35.5% -41.6% 3% 3% +26.9%
all 423 -35.5% -41.6% 3% 3% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover853.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 3% +26.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 3% +14.8%
15% -52.3% 3% +3.7%
20% -57.0% 3% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +252% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +252% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$1 · ×116.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.69 per $1 lost it wins $3.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7,172
Realized−$837
Unrealized+$7,021
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses13 / 410
Open positions90
Markets (closed)423 / 1113
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day853.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $4 $202 +$198 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $4 $198 +$194 (+4850%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $81 +$79 (+4950%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $81 +$79 (+4950%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $81 +$79 (+4950%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $81 +$79 (+4950%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $81 +$79 (+4950%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 410 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 47m
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,171.74 · official $7,171.74 (match) · 3500 history records