Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E2 0xe224…4907 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+8%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$68
other 14% +$11
economics 4% +$2
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 71% 64% +5.2%
≤30d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 71% 64% +5.2%
≤90d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 71% 64% +5.2%
all 16 +11.5% +0.9% 75% 56% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 56% +4.7%
10% -8.8% 25% -5.3%
15% -17.6% 25% -14.4%
20% -25.7% 6% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.87 per $1 lost it wins $6.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage539d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $81 +$37 +46%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $76 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 24 $64 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $53 +$11 +20%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $29 −$6 -20%
ITF Maanshan: Maria Kalyakina vs Han Hyeongju Jun 24 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 +$9 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$1 +11%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $32 −$4 -12%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -74%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$5 +50%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Feb 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $5 2m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 100¢ $118 2m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 82¢ $4 40m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 68¢ $81 40m
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner SELL AM Gaming 100¢ $84 48m
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 90¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 83¢ $64 3h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr SELL Walczaki 100¢ $64 3h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Walczaki 83¢ $53 4h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Esport Academy Copenhagen 38¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 46¢ $29 4h
ITF Maanshan: Maria Kalyakina vs Han Hyeongju SELL Maria Kalyakina 99¢ $59 5h
ITF Maanshan: Maria Kalyakina vs Han Hyeongju BUY Maria Kalyakina 97¢ $58 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 96¢ $13 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $12 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $18 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 68¢ $12 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 32¢ $11 17h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes $1 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $3 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $16 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records