Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E2 0xe21f…9fe3 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-13%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.9% -11.2% 60% 60% -5.3%
≤30d 5 -1.9% -11.2% 60% 60% -5.3%
≤90d 5 -1.9% -11.2% 60% 60% -5.3%
all 5 -1.9% -11.2% 60% 60% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 60% -5.3%
10% -19.7% 60% -14.4%
15% -27.5% 60% -22.7%
20% -34.6% 60% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$75 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $101 +$69 +68%
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 18 $66 +$43 +66%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 59¢ $101 2h
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues BUY Joao Domingues 60¢ $66 8h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 61¢ $101 10h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $51 33h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $101 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records