Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe21d…54e9 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$148 (-11%) realized −$135 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$92
crypto 22% −$175
sports 12% +$205
tech 7% −$94
politics 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -14.4% -22.5% 23% 21% -21.5%
≤30d 43 -14.4% -22.5% 23% 21% -21.5%
≤90d 43 -14.4% -22.5% 23% 21% -21.5%
all 43 -14.4% -22.5% 23% 21% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 21% -21.5%
10% -29.9% 21% -29.0%
15% -36.7% 19% -35.9%
20% -42.9% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$20 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 +$132 +259%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $92 −$90 -98%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$120 +118%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 +$22 +216%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$3 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 29 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +33%
Croatia to win the second half? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$57 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$45 +89%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +172%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $26 +$83 +324%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 99¢ $183 37m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Will N BUY 5¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 27¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $50 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 21¢ $93 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 46¢ $98 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6h
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc BUY Yes 0¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.91 · official $135.21 · 135 history records