Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E2 0xe21a…6a4c world 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%64W / 35L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$8
other 32% +$35
politics 11% −$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.8% -6.1% 64% 9% +1.1%
≤30d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 8% -23.8%
≤90d 33 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 30% -12.9%
all 99 +8.0% -2.3% 65% 34% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 34% -4.5%
10% -11.6% 18% -13.6%
15% -20.2% 14% -22.0%
20% -28.0% 5% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses64 / 35
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage207d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $21 +$8 +39%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 27 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $10 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 06 $44 −$25 -56%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -7%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $2 $0 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $12 +$2 +14%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +17%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 05 $2 $0 -11%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? May 05 $5 +$2 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $5 +$2 +43%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -78%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -88%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 08 $5 $0 -1%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $21 +$8 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 -3%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $3 $0 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 31 $15 +$6 +42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Mar 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $4 −$1 -30%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 20 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Mar 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 15 $1 $0 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 04 $1 $0 -5%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 04 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 03 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 43¢ $1 2d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 23d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 23d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 23d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 23d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 23d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 23d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 23d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 83¢ $9 23d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 59¢ $4 23d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.44 · official $22.50 (match) · 320 history records