Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe218…860d other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+6%) realized +$22 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$11
sports 23% +$38
world 15% −$1
politics 15% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 36% -4.7%
≤30d 25 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 36% -4.7%
≤90d 25 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 36% -4.7%
all 25 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 36% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 36% -4.7%
10% -22.2% 32% -13.9%
15% -29.7% 28% -22.2%
20% -36.6% 28% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 19 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 −$22 -80%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$28 +91%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$23 +50%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $23 −$1 -2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -82%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$35 +117%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$19 +123%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 S Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +249%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $60 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 20h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 44¢ $12 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 21h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 44¢ $6 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $22 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.54 · official $64.00 · 66 history records