Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E2 0xe216…7448 sports 1990 markets active 1h ago coverage 292d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 291d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,020 (-3%) realized −$21,092 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%784W / 1242L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$3,252est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 292d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,161
other 0% −$614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -64.2% -67.6% 16% 16% -45.1%
≤30d 241 -14.0% -22.2% 35% 35% -10.9%
≤90d 685 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 43% -11.9%
all 2026 -7.8% -16.6% 39% 39% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 39% -10.3%
10% -24.6% 38% -18.9%
15% -31.9% 37% -26.7%
20% -38.5% 35% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$256 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized−$21,092
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses784 / 1242
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,252
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2026 / 1990
History coverage292d ⚠
Avg bet$328
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 66¢ 92¢ $300 $418 +$118 (+39%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Giants vs. Mets Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Rangers vs. Mariners Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Tigers vs. White Sox Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
US Open: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Alex de Minaur Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Rays vs. Mariners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Nationals vs. Astros Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Pirates vs. Rockies Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Rockies vs. Cardinals Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Cubs vs. Giants Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Royals vs. White Sox Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
US Open: Adam Walton vs Chak Lam Coleman Wong Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Cardinals vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Chiefs vs. Seahawks Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Red Sox vs. Padres Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Guardians vs. Mets Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Dodgers vs. Rays Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Reds vs. Mets Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Reds vs. Cubs Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Broncos vs. 49ers Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Yankees vs. White Sox Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Mets vs. Padres Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Reds vs. Angels Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Giants vs. Padres Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Rays vs. Yankees Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs David Goffin Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Dodgers vs. Padres Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Bengals vs. Commanders Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Cardinals vs. Padres Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Twins vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Celtic end in a draw? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
US Open: Marketa Vondrousova vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Braves vs. Marlins Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Guardians vs. White Sox Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Giants vs. Padres Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Orioles vs. Cubs Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Athletics vs. Mariners Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Pafos FC vs. FK Crvena Zvezda end in a draw? Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Padres vs. Mariners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Dodgers vs. Angels Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Brewers vs. Braves Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Zverev Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Giants vs. Mets Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Nationals vs. Yankees Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Mercury vs Valkyries Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $303 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $1,733 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $776 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 56¢ $700 10h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 23¢ $26 22h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 24¢ $409 26h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 29¢ $357 29h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 50¢ $508 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $735 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $191 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $196 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $195 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $455 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $500 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,163 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $1,164 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $556 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $777 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,340 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $555 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $555 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $721 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $338 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $336 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $995 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 4¢ $107 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $814 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $1,018 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $916 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.59 · official $421.59 (match) · 3500 history records