Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe215…15f0 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 23% −$19
politics 8% −$9
economics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage134d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $311 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $359 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $263 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $355 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $443 −$3 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $618 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $337 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $465 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $136 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $644 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 5h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 7h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 9h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 11h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 13h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 14h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 20h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 25h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 30h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 31h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 42h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 44h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 1368 history records