Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E2 0xe214…c5ce sports 21 markets active 4h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42,857 (+47%) realized +$42,857 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4,364per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$519est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57,243
7 days+$57,243
14 days+$57,243
30 days+$57,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$12,900
sports 40% +$35,300
politics 19% −$6,206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +97.3% +78.6% 100% 100% +69.9%
≤30d 9 +97.3% +78.6% 100% 100% +69.9%
≤90d 9 +97.3% +78.6% 100% 100% +69.9%
all 20 +11.6% +1.0% 60% 55% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 55% +31.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 45% +19.3%
15% -17.5% 45% +7.8%
20% -25.6% 40% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$6,865) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -54% → late +78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,830 vs −$1,995 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42,857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$519
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage410d
Avg bet$4,364
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,865 +$3,135 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,059 +$3,784 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $13,620 +$16,184 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $635 +$396 +62%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,416 +$3,766 +156%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $14,145 +$8,688 +61%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,436 +$2,482 +173%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15,233 +$13,646 +90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,771 +$5,163 +76%
Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
New Pope announced by May 9? May 11 $8,693 −$8,693 -100%
Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $1,121 +$53 +5%
Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $4,838 −$4,836 -100%
Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $6,658 −$1,990 -30%
Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $2,208 +$328 +15%
Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $188 −$88 -47%
Will PAP win 90 or more seats in the Singapore election? May 04 $2,393 +$332 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,029 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $5,073 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,029 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $56 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $577 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $1,380 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $3 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $3 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $11 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 70¢ $2,001 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $12,144 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $6,865 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $8,546 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 12¢ $10 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1,019 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $0 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $20 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $56 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $11 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $1,348 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $15,233 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $6,771 28h
Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? BUY Yes $50 404d
New Pope announced by May 9? BUY No 34¢ $4,000 404d
New Pope announced by May 9? BUY No 32¢ $93 405d
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots? BUY Yes $100 405d
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? BUY Yes 26¢ $200 405d
New Pope announced by May 9? BUY No 30¢ $4,100 405d
New Pope announced by May 9? BUY No 27¢ $500 405d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 108 history records