Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe214…ed4a sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$6
other 19% −$5
world 13% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 57% -14.2%
≤30d 7 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 57% -14.2%
≤90d 7 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 57% -14.2%
all 7 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 57% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 57% -14.2%
10% -21.9% 57% -22.4%
15% -29.5% 29% -29.9%
20% -36.4% 29% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 52¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $3 29m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $3 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $3 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $1 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $2 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 75¢ $4 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.20 · official $7.05 (match) · 15 history records