Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe210…1918
world · 64 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$18 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$158
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage459d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$13
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $157 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $129 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $143 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $314 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $301 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $4 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $158 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $290 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $146 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3,179 +$3 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $128 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $159 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $1,969 +$10 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $12 −$5 -36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $987 +$2 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $1,086 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $0 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 08 $10 −$6 -53%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 29 $1 $0 -8%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 07 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$28
other 14% +$1
politics 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$7
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $157 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $143 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $105 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $140 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $156 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $156 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.6% -1.7% 71% 14% -8.3%
≤30d 14 +78.8% +61.7% 57% 14% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +59.2% +44.1% 50% 11% -9.2%
all 62 +16.0% +5.0% 42% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 3% -9.3%
10% -5.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -14.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -22.7% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.45 · official $157.20 (match) · 255 history records