Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E2 0xe20f…6cce sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$589 (+3%) realized +$589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,670
7 days−$618
14 days−$1,108
30 days−$1,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$470
other 33% −$1,578
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +66.7% +50.8% 55% 55% -16.0%
≤30d 31 +56.0% +41.1% 52% 52% -18.3%
≤90d 43 +34.0% +21.2% 44% 44% -18.4%
all 43 +34.0% +21.2% 44% 44% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 44% -18.4%
10% +9.6% 44% -26.2%
15% -1.0% 42% -33.3%
20% -10.7% 35% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$800) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$329 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage79d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $812 −$511 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,422 −$1,400 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $656 +$269 +41%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $811 −$800 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $814 −$800 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $506 +$347 +68%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $508 +$198 +39%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $507 +$385 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $506 −$500 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $507 −$500 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$148 +73%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,314 +$715 +54%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $1,018 −$860 -84%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1,013 +$607 +60%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $508 +$482 +95%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $305 +$456 +149%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $80 −$69 -86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$287 +140%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $508 +$600 +118%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $506 +$287 +57%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $336 −$330 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,001 +$933 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $299 −$295 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$195 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 08 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$6 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 19¢ $301 54m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $915 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $925 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $656 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $812 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $811 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $853 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $706 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $508 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $506 5h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $892 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 14h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $507 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 15h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 15h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $304 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,029 28h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 6¢ $158 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,018 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 87¢ $602 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $990 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,314 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,013 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $761 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,586 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 9¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records