Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe20a…a130 crypto 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$889 (-9%) realized −$955 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%73W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$319
14 days−$2,116
30 days−$1,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$154
other 30% −$598
crypto 16% −$633
sports 15% +$219
politics 1% −$27
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 33% 33% -24.3%
≤30d 108 -40.9% -46.5% 24% 24% -23.4%
≤90d 161 -10.8% -19.3% 35% 34% -19.0%
all 196 -9.6% -18.2% 37% 36% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 36% -18.8%
10% -26.1% 35% -26.5%
15% -33.2% 32% -33.6%
20% -39.8% 29% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$955
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses73 / 123
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)196 / 202
History coverage106d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $190 $234 +$44 (+23%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 50¢ 70¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 53¢ 44¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$48 +472%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $444 +$288 +65%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $410 −$255 -62%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$46 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $279 −$277 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$5 -3%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$66 +93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $398 −$105 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $150 +$135 +90%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $30 −$7 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $431 −$88 -20%
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$7 -7%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $51 +$51 +100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$18 +173%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$66 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 +$121 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Como 1907 leading at halftime? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 10 $198 +$155 +78%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 53¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $74 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $59 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $101 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $732 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 28h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $47 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 40h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $146 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $228 6d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $293 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $198 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.40 · official $608.40 · 568 history records