Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe209…f457 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%30W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,207per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$81
politics 34% −$55
sports 9% +$48
culture 8% −$12
economics 3% −$5
crypto 1% +$6
world 1% −$26
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -13.8% -22.0% 16% 2% -10.0%
all 109 -1.1% -10.5% 28% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 10% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,516) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,200
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses30 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,207
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $689 $690 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $510 $510 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,508 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,930 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,834 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $405 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 03 $523 +$2 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $864 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,336 −$5 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,980 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,564 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $4,993 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,902 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $311 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $374 +$2 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,454 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,459 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,421 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,013 −$1 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $792 +$8 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $427 $0 +0%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07? Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $510 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $689 29h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $993 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $995 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,506 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,502 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,504 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,421 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,423 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,340 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,342 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,218 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,181 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,183 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,515 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,516 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,268 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,270 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $545 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $546 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $487 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $487 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,199.54 · official $1,199.54 (match) · 361 history records