Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe206…017e tech 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 38% −$8
other 37% +$2
crypto 15% −$2
economics 5% −$9
politics 4% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 22% 11% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -15.4% -23.4% 30% 10% -10.2%
all 39 -8.1% -16.8% 54% 10% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 10% -11.6%
10% -24.8% 8% -20.1%
15% -32.1% 5% -27.8%
20% -38.7% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage236d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $98 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 23 $23 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jan 26 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 02 $30 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced by March 31? Jan 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 19 $1 $0 +43%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Dec 19 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Nov 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Nov 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 1h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 7d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 7d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $35 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $23 138d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 138d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 83¢ $9 138d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 84¢ $9 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.90 · official $230.90 (match) · 124 history records