Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe205…d3c2 crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$281 (-7%) realized −$271 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%54W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$108
14 days−$71
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$350
sports 39% −$7
other 1% +$16
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.1% -21.4% 60% 40% -46.9%
≤30d 55 -9.2% -17.8% 42% 38% -24.5%
≤90d 111 -9.0% -17.7% 49% 39% -17.0%
all 111 -9.0% -17.7% 49% 39% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -17.0%
10% -25.5% 30% -24.9%
15% -32.7% 26% -32.2%
20% -39.3% 16% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses54 / 57
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage87d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$8 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $37 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +150%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$5 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $73 +$35 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$32 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $61 −$4 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $28 +$5 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $20 −$2 -8%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $29 +$28 +95%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $88 +$41 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $21 −$18 -88%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $6 +$19 +320%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $21 +$65 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $19 +$22 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia- May 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $46 −$31 -67%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner May 20 $20 −$16 -80%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $25 +$76 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $138 −$115 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $33 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $34 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $33 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A SELL 57¢ $53 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $37 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 47h
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 42¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $17 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $11 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 20¢ $108 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $108 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $38 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $73 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 99¢ $71 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 292 history records