Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

E2 0xe204…b965 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%5W / 9L

Drawdown58%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day10.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-11.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-2.0%	-11.3%	36%	36%	+1.9%
≤30d	14	-2.0%	-11.3%	36%	36%	+1.9%
≤90d	14	-2.0%	-11.3%	36%	36%	+1.9%
all	14	-2.0%	-11.3%	36%	36%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.3%	36%	+1.9%
10%	-19.8%	36%	-7.8%
15%	-27.5%	36%	-16.7%
20%	-34.6%	29%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late +27% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.48 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses5 / 9

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 25

History coverage3d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day10.7

Drawdown58%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	22¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Jun 28	$101	−$2	-2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$40	−$40	-100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	Jun 28	$10	−$9	-92%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$10	+$11	+110%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-99%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran?	Jun 27	$7	+$34	+474%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$100	+$68	+68%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 26	$3	−$3	-98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	Jun 26	$4	−$4	-96%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 26	$10	+$4	+36%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 26	$10	+$8	+80%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	SELL Yes	85¢	$98	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	93¢	$10	1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	2¢	$1	1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	25¢	$10	2h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY	47¢	$10	17h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Will	BUY	19¢	$3	18h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal?	BUY	5¢	$2	18h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? AND Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 En	BUY	2¢	$2	18h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	23h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY	48¢	$10	23h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	25¢	$35	27h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	15¢	$3	32h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	59¢	$100	35h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	BUY Yes	86¢	$101	35h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	35h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	35h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	35h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	36h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5	BUY	43¢	$5	37h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	37h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND	BUY	29¢	$5	37h
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	44h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY	55¢	$10	2d
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY Türkiye	73¢	$10	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY	40¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.38 · official $30.38 (match) · 37 history records