Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E2 0xe200…d6ab crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%89W / 1L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$10
tech 0% −$3
other 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 28 -2.2% -11.5% 96% 4% -9.6%
all 90 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses89 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage237d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 22? Jun 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 20 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? Jun 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? Apr 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $127 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 12 $126 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on March 3? Mar 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $122 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $126 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $128 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $130 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $125 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $126 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $118 35d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 47d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 94¢ $4 51d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 83¢ $4 51d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 97¢ $3 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $109 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $105 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $106 64d
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 66d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $109 71d
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $114 75d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2 80d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 80d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 80d
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? BUY No 98¢ $5 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $127 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $124 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $123 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $126 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $124 93d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $4 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.45 · official $126.45 (match) · 186 history records