Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E2 0xe200…5886 sports 711 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,217 (-6%) realized −$12,208 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%429W / 281L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$268
14 days−$160
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,110
other 4% −$220
weather 0% −$29
world 0% −$30
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 37% -24.0%
≤30d 112 -7.0% -15.9% 54% 41% -11.7%
≤90d 207 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 41% -15.0%
all 710 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 47% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -15.2%
10% -23.6% 34% -23.3%
15% -30.9% 23% -30.7%
20% -37.7% 14% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$116 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$12,208
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses429 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)710 / 711
History coverage217d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 69¢ 60¢ $70 $61 −$9 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 −$85 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$47 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 −$48 -48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$40 -79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 −$13 -66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$9 -30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$79 -79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$2 -8%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $112 −$50 -45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$51 -50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $30 −$14 -47%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$46 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$28 +28%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$26 +52%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$30 +37%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$20 -39%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$62 +245%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -7%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$29 +72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 +$12 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$43 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $171 +$56 +33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$22 -72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 +$36 +59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $201 +$43 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $30 +$21 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 −$35 -35%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 +$5 +45%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $870 +$26 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $201 +$58 +29%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $201 +$46 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 34¢ $66 21m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $20 32m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 65¢ $80 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 49¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $50 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $50 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 40¢ $52 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $101 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $66 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 19¢ $0 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 20¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $40 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $21 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $30 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $20 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 58¢ $32 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 47h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $30 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.41 · official $61.41 (match) · 1811 history records