trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Brazil | 32¢ | 32¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Switzerland | 58¢ | 58¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +109% |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $2 | +$1 | +34% |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $3 | +$4 | +140% |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | Jun 10 | $4 | −$1 | -25% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | BUY Brazil | 32¢ | $5 | 1h |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | BUY Switzerland | 58¢ | $2 | 1h |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | SELL Yes | 100¢ | $4 | 1h |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 47¢ | $2 | 15h |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina | 74¢ | $2 | 15h |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) | BUY Czechia | 92¢ | $1 | 26h |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | BUY Mexico | 41¢ | $3 | 2d |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | SELL Yes | 53¢ | $3 | 2d |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY Yes | 71¢ | $3 | 61d |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY Yes | 64¢ | $1 | 62d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +53.2% | +38.7% | 80% | 60% | +36.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +53.2% | +38.7% | 80% | 60% | +36.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +53.2% | +38.7% | 80% | 60% | +36.3% |
| all | 5 | +53.2% | +38.7% | 80% | 60% | +36.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +38.7% | 60% | +36.3% |
| 10% | +25.4% | 60% | +23.2% |
| 15% | +13.3% | 40% | +11.3% |
| 20% | +2.2% | 40% | +0.4% |