Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1f7…ddc9 crypto 77 markets active 5d ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$559 (-20%) realized −$560 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$458
politics 27% $0
other 5% −$11
sports 4% −$104
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.3% -8.4% 54% 54% -9.3%
≤30d 47 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 45% -25.0%
≤90d 49 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 43% -25.5%
all 76 -9.3% -18.0% 49% 32% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 32% -28.4%
10% -25.8% 32% -35.3%
15% -33.0% 32% -41.5%
20% -39.6% 32% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$31 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$560
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage590d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 43¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$15 +59%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$18 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$25 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$16 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$16 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $47 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $41 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $41 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.22 · official $6.22 (match) · 179 history records