Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1f6…1a99 sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,457 (+6%) realized +$4,443 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate73%99W / 37L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$84
14 days+$1,066
30 days+$1,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,735
other 21% +$2,225
crypto 5% +$17
world 4% +$65
culture 3% +$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -48.4% -53.3% 27% 27% +1.9%
≤30d 23 -15.1% -23.2% 48% 43% +6.0%
≤90d 95 -8.2% -17.0% 67% 37% -8.5%
all 136 -2.1% -11.5% 73% 46% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 46% -4.5%
10% -19.9% 32% -13.6%
15% -27.7% 16% -21.9%
20% -34.8% 10% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$819) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$200 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$2,785
Realized+$4,443
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses99 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage144d
Avg bet$582
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $2,721 $2,737 +$16 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $507 +$155 +31%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$14 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 −$11 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $12 −$11 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $22 +$22 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 +$24 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $68 +$148 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $337 +$196 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,250 +$383 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $113 +$195 +172%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $540 +$115 +21%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $241 +$29 +12%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $487 +$353 +72%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $1,851 +$20 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $817 −$28 -4%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $197 −$197 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $820 +$10 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $640 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $468 −$6 -1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $250 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $820 −$10 -1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $770 +$230 +30%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $910 +$90 +10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $1,056 −$12 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $226 −$225 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 11 $972 +$12 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $501 +$37 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $1,110 +$390 +35%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Apr 23 $593 +$129 +22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $183 +$36 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $433 +$57 +13%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $1,010 +$85 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 22 $1,001 +$13 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $743 −$743 -100%
LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifie Apr 22 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $35 +$14 +40%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $63 +$38 +60%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $106 +$14 +13%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $372 −$372 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $427 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $854 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $854 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $599 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $19 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $507 30h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $15 30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $12 30h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 27¢ $12 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $4 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $22 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $17 6d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $22 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $7 9d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $35 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $68 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $13 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $1,250 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $113 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $337 12d
Will India win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 82¢ $540 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $429 15d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 18d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 58¢ $369 18d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 18d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 89¢ $241 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $118 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,785.13 · official $2,785.13 (match) · 496 history records