Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1f5…6210 sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+9%) realized +$318 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 39L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$220
14 days+$24
30 days+$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$418
other 7% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 67% +7.7%
≤30d 47 -9.1% -17.7% 32% 26% +4.3%
≤90d 56 -6.6% -15.5% 30% 25% +2.3%
all 56 -6.6% -15.5% 30% 25% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 25% +2.3%
10% -23.6% 23% -7.5%
15% -30.9% 16% -16.4%
20% -37.7% 12% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$13 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage32d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $184 +$44 +24%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $666 +$149 +22%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $303 +$27 +9%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$20 -196%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-25? Jun 11 $227 −$15 -7%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$7 -145%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $46 −$90 -196%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 −$8 -132%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 −$21 -51%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$10 -194%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -72%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 -15%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 -14%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $8 +$30 +361%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $206 +$160 +78%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $300 +$2 +1%
Londrina EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 0.5 May 31 $5 +$3 +48%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5 May 31 $43 +$32 +74%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 31 $407 +$142 +35%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 May 30 $2 $0 -8%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5 May 30 $357 −$239 -67%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $3 $0 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 May 30 $1 $0 -24%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 30 $23 −$5 -20%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 4.5 May 30 $5 −$1 -18%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1 $0 -9%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $1 $0 -7%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $2 −$1 -30%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $1 $0 -5%
Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1 $0 -15%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5 May 25 $202 +$46 +23%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 25 $40 $0 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 25 $2 −$1 -32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -92%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 May 25 $5 −$2 -32%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Jones vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5 May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 May 25 $101 +$172 +170%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 May 25 $41 +$31 +74%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5 May 24 $1 $0 -4%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 24 $82 +$39 +48%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 4.5 May 24 $5 +$4 +85%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Tochigi SC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $4 +$6 +138%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 May 24 $127 −$57 -45%
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda May 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $125 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 84¢ $102 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $184 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $323 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $492 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $153 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $304 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $121 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $89 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $3 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $328 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $303 2h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) SELL Atlanta Braves $0 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) SELL Atlanta Braves $0 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $1 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $1 12d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 12d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 16d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 37¢ $1 16d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $1 16d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 16d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 16d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $1 16d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 16d
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 17d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $39 19d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 19d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records