Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1f3…85de
crypto · 133 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$320 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$613
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)126 / 133
History coverage55d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 7 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$730
14 days+$395
30 days+$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $92 $98 +$7 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $106 $82 −$24 (-22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 90¢ 94¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 40¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 43¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 41¢ 97¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+138%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $200 +$7 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $200 +$40 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $200 +$13 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $200 −$71 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $300 −$29 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $151 +$151 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $200 −$1 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $101 −$68 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $200 +$19 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $151 +$799 +528%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $106 −$56 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$28 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $300 +$13 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $50 −$24 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $114 −$97 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $296 +$59 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $106 −$105 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,117 +$674 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $643 −$291 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $266 +$14 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $694 −$169 -24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,388 +$8 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $298 +$58 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $100 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $100 −$95 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $958 −$121 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $64 +$2 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $100 +$256 +256%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 24 $144 +$76 +53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $400 +$68 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $780 −$9 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$370
crypto 24% −$873
other 18% +$881
politics 2% +$309
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $14 44m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $100 47m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $100 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $170 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $71 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $83 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $53 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $70 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $31 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $9 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $73 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $72 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $72 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $1 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 94¢ $101 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.7% -2.5% 61% 22% +10.1%
≤30d 68 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 25% -4.5%
≤90d 126 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 27% -9.6%
all 126 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 27% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 15% -18.3%
15% -33.2% 12% -26.2%
20% -39.7% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.89 · official $612.89 (match) · 1552 history records