Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1ec…2d0e other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,352 (+1%) realized +$2,657 · open −$305
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,488per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$31,331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,975
7 days−$8,943
14 days−$8,943
30 days−$8,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$11,799
sports 6% −$6,378
crypto 5% −$2,853
politics 5% −$1,198
tech 3% +$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -43.4% -48.8% 37% 31% -18.0%
≤30d 35 -43.4% -48.8% 37% 31% -18.0%
≤90d 35 -43.4% -48.8% 37% 31% -18.0%
all 61 -28.1% -35.0% 48% 39% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 39% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 28% -14.6%
15% -46.9% 18% -22.8%
20% -52.1% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,658) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,489 vs −$1,283 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$31,331
Realized+$2,657
Unrealized−$305
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions12
Markets (closed)61 / 73
History coverage289d
Avg bet$2,488
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $9,030 $8,955 −$75 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $3,950 $4,025 +$75 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $3,700 $3,725 +$25 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $3,750 $3,725 −$25 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4,150 $3,412 −$737 (-18%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $2,997 $3,063 +$66 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $1,257 $1,314 +$56 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $942 −$58 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $546 $780 +$234 (+43%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $375 $588 +$212 (+57%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $581 $466 −$116 (-20%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $338 +$38 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $246 −$240 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,532 +$1,468 +42%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,383 +$1,517 +45%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,014 +$871 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9,425 −$4,300 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,751 −$194 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,747 +$253 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,550 +$170 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $276 −$91 -33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,787 −$2,446 -88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $125 −$110 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $357 −$350 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $195 −$190 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3,062 −$3,040 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,941 +$1,059 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,090 −$576 -28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,034 −$1,010 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $303 −$42 -14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $864 +$136 +16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $834 +$166 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1,543 −$1,525 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2,056 −$2,030 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,298 −$3,280 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $355 before 2026?? Jun 13 $417 +$132 +32%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? Jun 13 $2,658 +$295 +11%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 13 $2,964 +$284 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 13 $4,900 +$2,100 +43%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6,500 +$3,500 +54%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 16 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 16 $510 +$890 +174%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 16 $4,358 +$2,358 +54%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $2,517 +$151 +6%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 09 $2,640 −$1,194 -45%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 05 $371 −$234 -63%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $974 +$239 +24%
Will Bianca Censori be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $1,045 +$246 +24%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Dec 04 $1,524 +$290 +19%
Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile? Dec 01 $1,180 −$1,102 -93%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Nov 23 $179 +$45 +25%
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $2,198 +$116 +5%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $3,108 +$345 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $878 −$878 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $3,650 −$3,650 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 43m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $103 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $103 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,900 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $103 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $300 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $5,025 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $172 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $27 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 50¢ $1,478 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $523 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $185 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $379 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under $341 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $34 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $73 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,331.49 · official $31,331.94 (match) · 428 history records