Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe1eb…ad1f politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$8
other 27% −$3
sports 11% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
world 9% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,008) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage79d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series May 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $961 −$2 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 24 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $942 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,009 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 22 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $948 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Apr 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Apr 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 30 $130 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 30 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,261 0m
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 6m
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $12 16m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,228 24m
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $13 35m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,199 44m
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 53m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,189 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $850 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $348 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 2h
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $49 21d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL No 94¢ $11 21d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $19 21d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL No 94¢ $12 21d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY No 94¢ $23 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $959 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $933 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? SELL No 100¢ $1,007 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 24d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $978 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records