Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1e7…8a71 sports 817 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$767 (-1%) realized −$305 · open −$462
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%318W / 533L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$2,055est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$8,361
weather 10% −$3,358
other 3% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -99.9% -99.9% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤30d 142 -54.4% -58.7% 20% 19% -46.3%
≤90d 746 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 38% -18.2%
all 851 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 36% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 35% -26.4%
15% -38.6% 31% -33.5%
20% -44.7% 27% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$118 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$462
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses318 / 533
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,055
Open positions7
Markets (closed)851 / 817
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Karmine Corp 60¢ 26¢ $200 $85 −$115 (-57%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-16%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+25%)
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Under 52¢ 0¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Under 49¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 16¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 23? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17? Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winner Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17? Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 20? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 17? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will LYON win First Stand 2026? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $138 −$131 -95%
Will G2 Esports win First Stand 2026? Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-17.5) Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $78 −$76 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $209 −$205 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $214 −$210 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $173 +$175 +102%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $226 −$221 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 16¢ $43 43m
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 52¢ $152 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 49¢ $152 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $202 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 29¢ $30 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $48 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 22¢ $31 25h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $122 25h
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 25h
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 25h
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 25h
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 41¢ $209 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 22¢ $41 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 28¢ $20 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 35¢ $31 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 28¢ $61 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 43¢ $61 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 42¢ $51 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 51¢ $81 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 45¢ $153 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $348 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $71 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 48¢ $102 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 22¢ $41 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 19¢ $1 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $41 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $41 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 29¢ $41 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 26¢ $61 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 12¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.05 · official $167.34 (match) · 3500 history records